This report forecasts retail sales for 2010 in central and southeast Europe.  In addition, we forecast other variables such as unemployment and real GDP which impact retail. It is aimed at senior management of retail companies as well as investors.

We examine the market as a whole, and not individual companies. We have excluded information with little explanatory power for predicting retail sales. Our data was obtained from public and primary sources. Our conclusions and forecasts are based on mosaic theory and advanced non-linear econometric modeling.

In combination with POS data analysis, this report is all you need to understand how retail sales are affected by broader economic developments.

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Claims that ČEZ abuses its market power are not new. The author examines the theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence for market abuse in the Czech energy sector, demonstrating that the potential for abuse is real. The report sets ČEZ in its regional and domestic market context, identifying five structural variables that determine ČEZ's profitability. It argues that successful renewal of the Czech generation fleet is critical for maintaining such profitability, whereas foreign acquisitions are not. It concludes that future value depends on efficient execution of capital spending programs and that the risk of government failure to challenge value dilutive decisions of a management it appoints remains high.

This 30 page study is based upon models of western European electricity markets and our own analysis of primary source data.

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Prime Minister Fico’s governing SMER will go into opposition, unable to find a partner. SMER received a remarkable 35% of the popular vote, giving it 62 seats in the 150 seat parliament. SMER came within a whisker of being able to form a government. Of its two previous coalition partners, SNS just scraped in and LS-HZDS just failed. If LS-HZDS had won a handful more votes and jumped the 5% threshold, Fico would remain in power with his two old allies.

As it is, four smaller anti-Fico parties will now attempt to form an “austerity” coalition. With 79 seats, this combination would hold a parliamentary majority of just four votes. The narrowness of the victory of the anti-Fico coalition is underlined by the concentration of its support around the capital city Bratislava. Otherwise, Slovakia voted largely for SMER.

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CSSD’s performance was well below expectations, and its chairman, Jiri Paroubek, has resigned. Bohuslav Sobotka will serve as interim leader until a new leader is chosen, possibly not until early 2011. There are likely to be two candidates: Sobotka himself and Michal Hašek.

The poor ODS result was expected. The party has less room to manoeuvre with Petr Nečas as leader given his principled approach to politics. At least 15 ODS MPs from the previous parliament, who had been placed high on the party list, were not reelected. Many of these, such as Ivan Langer, are old guard ODS that Nečas will be pleased to see the back of.

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