Comparative Analysis
We explain why energy policy objectives and regulatory frameworks vary across central and southeast Europe.
We assess the explanatory value of economic development, industry consumption patterns, social equality, relative cost of electricity and electricity trade balance.
In addition, we develop an index of party positions on economic and cultural value issues and assess the extent to which the ideological position of and relative power distribution among public officials are good predictors of energy policy objectives.
Market Entry Strategy
We identify regulatory risks and opportunities arising from our client’s intention to enter a national energy market.
We analyse the development of various fuel prices and the pace of convergence to world prices. We identify and assess variables which hinder the pace of price convergence, such as subsidies and price support schemes, and explain the political dynamics behind these variables.
We identify near-to-mid term investment opportunities, evaluating how regulation may affect the profitability of such. |
Transaction Analysis
We examine how interpretation of water regulation may influence the valuation and return on investment of the targeted firm.
We assess whether there is a statistically significant difference between the regulator’s view on tariffs and reasonable profit of operational and mixed model firms. We assess the probability that tariffs would increase each year by a specified amount, an assumption made in the business plan.
We conduct a regional comparative analysis of household spending on utilities as a ratio to their disposable income and benchmark the pace at which spending on various utilities is changing. We make a comparison of the above with CPI in order to establish the relative cost of water to consumers.
In addition, we analyse a time series of media articles to determine the saliency of public debate, its trend and seasonality. The objective of both analyses is to predict the probability of regulatory action to limit the margin and/or return on investment.
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